NASA has once again increased the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth, making it the highest-risk asteroid ever recorded. Initially given a 1.2% chance of impact, the odds rose to 2.3% just weeks later. Now, scientists warn that the likelihood has jumped to 3.1%, a significant shift that raises global concerns.
What is Asteroid 2024 YR4?
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in late 2024 and is currently moving away from Earth. However, it is expected to return within the next seven years, with a potential impact in 2032. Measuring between 40 to 100 meters in width, this space rock could cause significant damage if it enters Earth’s atmosphere at full velocity.
How High is the Risk?
The current impact probability of 3.1% means there is a 1-in-32 chance of a direct collision with Earth. While that might still seem low, it marks a historic increase in risk assessment, making this asteroid one of the most closely monitored celestial objects in NASA’s records.
On the flip side, 96.9% odds remain in favor of a miss—good news for those hoping to avoid an apocalyptic event.
Potential Impact Zones
Scientists predict that if 2024 YR4 does hit, it could land anywhere along a vast area stretching from northern South America, across the Pacific Ocean, to southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and Africa. Countries at potential risk include:
- India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador
- Major cities such as Mumbai, Dhaka, and Lagos fall within the projected risk zone, home to over 100 million people.
How Would NASA Respond?
NASA has developed protocols for planetary defense, including alerting affected countries and the global community in the event of a confirmed threat. The agency has also tested asteroid deflection methods, such as the $324 million Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), which successfully altered an asteroid’s trajectory in 2022.
China has also formed a planetary defense team to study mitigation strategies, indicating that global powers are taking asteroid threats seriously.
What Happens Next?
Astronomers are closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4 using advanced technology, including the James Webb Space Telescope. While an impact remains unlikely at this stage, the rising probabilities demand continued observation and preparedness.
For now, there’s no need to panic—but this asteroid will be one to watch closely as we approach 2032.
Final Thoughts
With increasing impact probabilities and a growing area of concern, asteroid 2024 YR4 has captured the world’s attention. NASA’s continued updates will determine whether this space rock remains a distant threat or becomes a pressing global issue. Stay tuned for more developments on this high-risk celestial event.
